Most of this miss by the so-called economists could be explained by the difference between Keyneian

New orders for factory goods unexpectedly fell in the United States in June, a fresh sign that the slowdown in the country's manufacturing sector residence inn san antonio will probably stretch into the second half of the year.
American residence inn san antonio factories appear to be one of the sectors most vulnerable to Europe's festering debt crisis. The trend in American manufacturing has appeared softer and has added to concerns the economic recovery is losing steam. The decline in new orders in June will probably mean softer residence inn san antonio output down the road, which could weigh on economic growth. Car Sales "Somewhat Softer Than Expected"
July auto sales showed the continuation of what has been a slowdown in growth since the late spring. Sales early this year shot past even the most bullish forecasts, but starting in May, the rate of improvement started to weaken.
"If we were talking in February this year and you asked me what we're going to have July, I'd say at least 14 and a half," said TrueCar.com analyst Jesse Toprak. "But we're going to barely get to 14."
GM, the largest U.S. automaker, reported on Wednesday a 6 percent drop in July U.S. sales, while Ford posted a 4 percent drop. The smallest U.S. automaker, Chrysler Group LLC, posted a 13 percent increase.
Toyota residence inn san antonio sales were up 26 percent to 164,898 in July. A year ago, Toyota residence inn san antonio was still grappling with major vehicle shortages stemming from the March earthquake in Japan. In a release, Toyota said customers were taking advantage residence inn san antonio of long-term, low-interest financing at low lease rates . Expect the Unexpected
Why economists could not see this coming is a mystery. Manufacturing new orders have collapsed virtually everywhere, including the US. GDP, a lagging indicator, is 1.5% annualized, well below the stall speed of 2%.
If the jobs report is miserable tomorrow, and I expect it to be, then expect economists to be surprised by that too. For Friday's job forecast ADP predicts +163,000 jobs but I'll Take the Under (Way Under) .
Car sales down. Employment down. Economy down. And Obama says "the private sector is doing fine" ( Give me more tax money) residence inn san antonio or is that "mo money" Raise taxes so he can spend more. Congress, are you alive? Out here in America, it sure doesn't look like it. Enjoy your five week vacation. No telling what Obama will do while you are gone.
We're talking to ourselves, because the other 50% who elected all of these Liberals, and the communist in chief are not interested in any facts. As long as you have a job, or a business that's not going under, you can call the economic problems a recession. If you're out of work, losing your house, or losing your business, you will call it a depression.
The only phrase this administration uses more than "unexpected" relates to G W Bush. This clearly explains the constant look of surprise on Nany Pelosi's (ugh) face. I can't wait until my new medical services kick in. Dr. to patient: residence inn san antonio "The sudden downturn in your health may be linked to poor management by your provider. This was totally unexpected". Terrific.
Most of this miss by the so-called economists could be explained by the difference between residence inn san antonio Keyneian economics and Austrian economics. The Austrians have been predicting a contraction and a possible return to recession for some time due to the government interference in the markets and in business in general. Only the Keynesians believe that government meddling and regulation will help the economy.
Mr..Shedlock, you are far too pessimistic (full disclosure--I am, too). But, I would not put too much credence in the Commerce Department's ability to predict anything. Even if there were a mandatory, real-time, reporting of every automobile sold, the Commerce Department would find a way to botch reporting sales (which may not be so precisely defined--i.e., is a lease a sale? how about consignments?, etc.)
Well the BLS matches ADP!!!! WOW. Probably to the person. But, strangely Civilian Participation drops another 150,000, residence inn san antonio while population increases 199,000. residence inn san antonio 13.27% of employed are part time. Actual employed decreases 195,000. residence inn san antonio And U-6 increases from 14.9 to 15.0% That would be, "U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons residence inn san antonio marginally attached to the labor force" Non-seasonally adjusted. BTW, there is lot's more negative in the actual report as well.
How can car sales NOT be down, when so many people are out of work......With the price of everything going up, mostly because of the gasoline over pricing at the pump making residence inn san antonio transportation cost way high..the economy will just keep struggling along.
Keep in mind that part of the idea behind Cash For Clunkers was not just to sell new cars, but to diminish the number of used cars in the marketplace to help drive up future car sales. Well, the future is now and car sales are down despite a smaller used car market. The bottom line is that the intervention didn't work, and we spent taxpayer money on another failure of an idea. One can speculate all one wants about how bad things residence inn san antonio would have been without the program, but the program was designed to make things better. They are not. That is the bottom line.
Holy Cow! The prediction of adding 163,000 was dead on the reported number. Now, I know the numbers are juggled, adjusted, manipulated, and recalculated to arrive at the best result possible but to hit the prediction dead on? Denmark, find out what is rotten and report back to us.
Peddle44, I would not get too excited about the economy having added 163K jobs last month. It is only a guesstimate, derived from a small sample of actual reported new hires, residence inn san antonio and then massaged to come up with a "seasonal adjustment" to get the reported number. It is almost always "adjusted" in succeeding months, and the "corrected" number receives little or no publicity.
The number that should be rep[orted is the actual number of people working versus residence inn san antonio the total available workforce. You can't arbitrarily change the actual number residence inn san antonio of those employed. residence inn san antonio Total number available to work minus those employed equals number not employed. I would guess that number/percentage to be higher than most would care to think about.
Blame it on the UAW. Their contracts were kept in place by the Obama stealing of the companies instead of letting them go through the proper bankruptcy proceedings per the law. Those onerous contracts would have been null and void and the companies could start fresh with workers who actually wanted to earn their money.
Raw material and energy costs as the dollar declines and ever increasing labor costs.Flucuating residence inn san antonio currency markest impact the cost of goods manufactured outside of our borders. (Canada, Mexico, China and so on.)
The numbers were HORRIBLE as I consider approx 50 % down from the year before at Gm and Chrysler abysmal numbers and they can try to spin it any way they wish as they have with unemployment rate -those numbers are a farce -but the domestic auto numbers hurt because we will never be paid back -not that we would probably see the money anyway but it was nice to hope. I was surprised to see Ford's numbers down however as i believe they are making residence inn san antonio some quality automobiles -have owned them and my father just purchased 2 cars from them -they have several top 10 cars by consumer reports standards and wish them well .
Sorry I'm not in the liberal loop for talking points. You should have seen the two ultra libs on talk show this morning. They can't back anything up and just repeat the same talking points over and over. If they get backed up in a corner, they get shrill and talk over the other guest. UNREAL. The lib said Romneys budget plan was a page lond. I remember when they were runny down his 50 some point plan. Obumber has a new word today. Fairy Dust.
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